Different Time Windows Provide Divergent Estimates of Climate Variability and Change Impacts on Maize Yield in Northeast China

doi:10.3390/su11236659

	Different Time Windows Provide Divergent Estimates of Climate Variability and Change Impacts on Maize Yield in Northeast China
	Deng, Xi 1; Huang, Yao1 ; Sun, Wenjuan ; Yu, Lingfei ; Hu, Xunyu 1; Wang, Sheng 1
	2019
发表期刊	SUSTAINABILITY
卷号	11 期号:23
摘要	Maize is the main crop in Northeast China (NEC), but is susceptible to climate variations. Using county-level data from 1980 to 2010, we established multiple linear regression models between detrended changes in maize yield and climate variables at two time windows whole-season and vegetative and reproductive (V&R) phases. Based on climate change trends, these regression models were used to assess climate variability and change impacts on maize yield in different regions of NEC. The results show that different time windows provide divergent estimates. Climate change over the 31 years induced a 1.3% reduction in maize yield at the time window of whole-season, but an increase of 9.1% was estimated at the time window of V&R phases. The yield improvement is attributed to an increase in minimum temperature at the vegetative phase when the temperatures were much lower than the optimum. Yield fluctuations due to inter-annual climate variability were estimated to be 9% per year at the time window of V&R phases, suggesting that the impact of climate variability on maize yield is much greater than climate change. Trends in precipitation were not responsible for the yield change, but precipitation anomalies contributed to the yield fluctuations. The impacts of warming on maize yield are regional specific, depending on the local temperatures relative to the optimum. Increase in maximum temperature led to a reduction of maize yield in western NEC, but to an increase in mid-east part of NEC. Our findings highlight the necessity of taking into account the phenological phase when assessing the climate impacts on crop yield, and the importance of buffering future crop production from climate change in NEC.
关键词	climate change climate variability maize yield Northeast China vegetative and reproductive phases whole-season
学科领域	Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
DOI	10.3390/su11236659
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS关键词	CROP PRODUCTION ; WHEAT YIELD ; TEMPERATURE ; HEAT ; TRENDS ; GROWTH ; WATER ; VARIABLES ; REGIONS ; STRESS
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS记录号	WOS:000508186400131
出版者	MDPI
文献子类	Article
出版地	BASEL
EISSN	2071-1050
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [41530533]
作者邮箱	dengxi@ibcas.ac.cn ; huangyao@ibcas.ac.cn ; sunwj@ibcas.ac.cn ; yulf@ibcas.ac.cn ; huxunyu@ibcas.ac.cn ; wangsheng0712@ibcas.ac.cn
作品OA属性	gold
引用统计	被引频次：2[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.ibcas.ac.cn/handle/2S10CLM1/19586
专题	植被与环境变化国家重点实验室
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Vegetat & Environm Change, Inst Bot, Beijing 100093, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Deng, Xi,Huang, Yao,Sun, Wenjuan,et al. Different Time Windows Provide Divergent Estimates of Climate Variability and Change Impacts on Maize Yield in Northeast China[J]. SUSTAINABILITY,2019,11(23).
APA	Deng, Xi,Huang, Yao,Sun, Wenjuan,Yu, Lingfei,Hu, Xunyu,&Wang, Sheng.(2019).Different Time Windows Provide Divergent Estimates of Climate Variability and Change Impacts on Maize Yield in Northeast China.SUSTAINABILITY,11(23).
MLA	Deng, Xi,et al."Different Time Windows Provide Divergent Estimates of Climate Variability and Change Impacts on Maize Yield in Northeast China".SUSTAINABILITY 11.23(2019).

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	文献类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
Deng-2019-Different （1716KB）	期刊论文	出版稿	开放获取	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览请求全文