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Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments
Wang, Xuhui; Zhao, Chuang; Mueller, Christoph1; Wang, Chenzhi; Ciais, Philippe2; Janssens, Ivan3; Penuelas, Josep4,5; Asseng, Senthold6; Li, Tao7; Elliott, Joshua8; Huang, Yao9; Li, Laurent10; Piao, Shilong11,12
AbstractResponses of global crop yields to warmer temperatures are fundamental to sustainable development under climate change but remain uncertain. Here, we combined a global dataset of field warming experiments (48 sites) for wheat, maize, rice and soybean with gridded global crop models to produce field-data-constrained estimates on responses of crop yield to changes in temperature (S-T) with the emergent-constraint approach. Our constrained estimates show with >95% probability that warmer temperatures would reduce yields for maize (-7.1 +/- 2.8% K-1), rice (-5.6 +/- 2.0% K-1) and soybean (-10.6 +/- 5.8% K-1). For wheat,S(T)was 89% likely to be negative (-2.9 +/- 2.3% K-1). Uncertainties associated with modelledS(T)were reduced by 12-54% for the four crops but data constraints do not allow for further disentanglingS(T)of different crop types. A key implication for impact assessments after the Paris Agreement is that direct warming impacts alone will reduce major crop yields by 3-13% under 2 K global warming without considering CO(2)fertilization effects and adaptations. Even if warming was limited to 1.5 K, all major producing countries would still face notable warming-induced yield reduction. This yield loss could be partially offset by projected benefits from elevated CO2, whose magnitude remains uncertain, and highlights the challenge to compensate it by autonomous adaptation. Global responses of crops to warmer temperatures will affect agricultural sustainability. This study of maize, rice, soybean and wheat projects yield reductions of 3-13% under 2 degrees C warming.
Subject AreaGreen & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
Indexed BySCI
WOS Research AreaScience & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS IDWOS:000544156000005
Publication PlaceBERLIN
Funding OrganizationNational Key Research & Development Program of China [2019YFA0607300] ; Strategic Priority Research Program (A) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences [XDA20050101]
Corresponding Author Emailxuhui.wang@pku.edu.cn
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Cited Times:23[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Affiliation1.Peking Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Sino French Inst Earth Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany
3.CEA CNRS UVSQ, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, Gif Sur Yvette, France
4.Univ Antwerp, Dept Biol, Antwerp, Belgium
5.CREAF, Barcelona, Spain
6.CSIC, Global Ecol Unit, CREAF, CEAB,UAB, Barcelona, Spain
7.Univ Florida, Dept Agr & Biol Engn, Gainesville, FL USA
8.Appl GeoSolut, Durham, NH USA
9.Univ Chicago, Computat Inst, Chicago, IL 60637 USA
10.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Bot, State Key Lab Vegetat & Environm Change, Beijing, Peoples R China
11.Sorbonne Univ, Lab Meteorol Dynam, Ecole Normale Super, Ecole Polytech,IPSL,CNRS, Paris, France
12.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Alpine Ecol & Biodivers, Beijing, Peoples R China
13.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Excellence Tibetan Earth Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Wang, Xuhui,Zhao, Chuang,Mueller, Christoph,et al. Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments[J]. NATURE SUSTAINABILITY,2020,3(11):908-916.
APA Wang, Xuhui.,Zhao, Chuang.,Mueller, Christoph.,Wang, Chenzhi.,Ciais, Philippe.,...&Piao, Shilong.(2020).Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments.NATURE SUSTAINABILITY,3(11),908-916.
MLA Wang, Xuhui,et al."Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments".NATURE SUSTAINABILITY 3.11(2020):908-916.
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