Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments

doi:10.1038/s41893-020-0569-7

	Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments
	Wang, Xuhui ; Zhao, Chuang ; Mueller, Christoph 1; Wang, Chenzhi ; Ciais, Philippe 2; Janssens, Ivan 3; Penuelas, Josep 4,5; Asseng, Senthold 6; Li, Tao 7; Elliott, Joshua 8; Huang, Yao9 ; Li, Laurent 10; Piao, Shilong 11,12
	2020
发表期刊	NATURE SUSTAINABILITY
ISSN	2398-9629
卷号	3 期号:11 页码:908-916
摘要	Responses of global crop yields to warmer temperatures are fundamental to sustainable development under climate change but remain uncertain. Here, we combined a global dataset of field warming experiments (48 sites) for wheat, maize, rice and soybean with gridded global crop models to produce field-data-constrained estimates on responses of crop yield to changes in temperature (S-T) with the emergent-constraint approach. Our constrained estimates show with >95% probability that warmer temperatures would reduce yields for maize (-7.1 +/- 2.8% K-1), rice (-5.6 +/- 2.0% K-1) and soybean (-10.6 +/- 5.8% K-1). For wheat,S(T)was 89% likely to be negative (-2.9 +/- 2.3% K-1). Uncertainties associated with modelledS(T)were reduced by 12-54% for the four crops but data constraints do not allow for further disentanglingS(T)of different crop types. A key implication for impact assessments after the Paris Agreement is that direct warming impacts alone will reduce major crop yields by 3-13% under 2 K global warming without considering CO(2)fertilization effects and adaptations. Even if warming was limited to 1.5 K, all major producing countries would still face notable warming-induced yield reduction. This yield loss could be partially offset by projected benefits from elevated CO2, whose magnitude remains uncertain, and highlights the challenge to compensate it by autonomous adaptation. Global responses of crops to warmer temperatures will affect agricultural sustainability. This study of maize, rice, soybean and wheat projects yield reductions of 3-13% under 2 degrees C warming.
学科领域	Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
DOI	10.1038/s41893-020-0569-7
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; WHEAT YIELD ; CARBON-DIOXIDE ; MAJOR CROPS ; IMPACTS ; GROWTH ; MODELS ; CO2 ; SENSITIVITY ; ENSEMBLES
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS记录号	WOS:000544156000005
出版者	NATURE RESEARCH
文献子类	Article
出版地	BERLIN
资助机构	National Key Research & Development Program of China [2019YFA0607300] ; Strategic Priority Research Program (A) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences [XDA20050101]
作者邮箱	xuhui.wang@pku.edu.cn
作品OA属性	Bronze
引用统计	被引频次：88[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.ibcas.ac.cn/handle/2S10CLM1/21702
专题	植被与环境变化国家重点实验室
作者单位	1.Peking Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Sino French Inst Earth Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany 3.CEA CNRS UVSQ, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, Gif Sur Yvette, France 4.Univ Antwerp, Dept Biol, Antwerp, Belgium 5.CREAF, Barcelona, Spain 6.CSIC, Global Ecol Unit, CREAF, CEAB,UAB, Barcelona, Spain 7.Univ Florida, Dept Agr & Biol Engn, Gainesville, FL USA 8.Appl GeoSolut, Durham, NH USA 9.Univ Chicago, Computat Inst, Chicago, IL 60637 USA 10.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Bot, State Key Lab Vegetat & Environm Change, Beijing, Peoples R China 11.Sorbonne Univ, Lab Meteorol Dynam, Ecole Normale Super, Ecole Polytech,IPSL,CNRS, Paris, France 12.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Alpine Ecol & Biodivers, Beijing, Peoples R China 13.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Excellence Tibetan Earth Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Xuhui,Zhao, Chuang,Mueller, Christoph,et al. Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments[J]. NATURE SUSTAINABILITY,2020,3(11):908-916.
APA	Wang, Xuhui.,Zhao, Chuang.,Mueller, Christoph.,Wang, Chenzhi.,Ciais, Philippe.,...&Piao, Shilong.(2020).Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments.NATURE SUSTAINABILITY,3(11),908-916.
MLA	Wang, Xuhui,et al."Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments".NATURE SUSTAINABILITY 3.11(2020):908-916.

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