Projective analysis of staple food crop productivity in adaptation to future climate change in China

doi:10.1016/j.soilbio.2017.07.002

	Projective analysis of staple food crop productivity in adaptation to future climate change in China
	Zhang, Qing ; Zhang, Wen ; Li, Tingting ; Sun, Wenjuan 1; Yu, Yongqiang ; Wang, Guocheng
	2017
发表期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY
ISSN	0020-7128
卷号	61 期号:8 页码:1445-1460
摘要	Climate change continually affects our capabilities to feed the increasing population. Rising temperatures have the potential to shorten the crop growth duration and therefore reduce crop yields. In the past decades, China has successfully improved crop cultivars to stabilize, and even lengthen, the crop growth duration to make use of increasing heat resources. However, because of the complex cropping systems in the different regions of China, the possibility and the effectiveness of regulating crop growth duration to reduce the negative impacts of future climate change remain questionable. Here, we performed a projective analysis of the staple food crop productivity in double-rice, wheat-rice, wheat-maize, single-rice, and single-maize cropping systems in China using modeling approaches. The results indicated that from the present to the 2040s, the warming climate would shorten the growth duration of the current rice, wheat, and maize cultivars by 2-24, 11-13, and 9-29 days, respectively. The most significant shortening of the crop growth duration would be in Northeast China, where single-rice and single-maize cropping dominates the croplands. The shortened crop growth duration would consequently reduce crop productivity. The most significant decreases would be 27-31, 6-20, and 7-22% for the late crop in the double-rice rotation, wheat in the winter wheat-rice rotation, and single maize, respectively. However, our projection analysis also showed that the negative effects of the warming climate could be compensated for by stabilizing the growth duration of the crops via improvement in crop cultivars. In this case, the productivity of rice, wheat, and maize in the 2040s would increase by 4-16, 31-38, and 11-12%, respectively. Our modeling results implied that the possibility of securing future food production exists by adopting proper adaptation options in China.
关键词	Model projection Climate change Crop productivity Adaptation
学科领域	Agriculture
DOI	10.1016/j.soilbio.2017.07.002
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS关键词	CHANGE IMPACTS ; RICE PRODUCTION ; GENETIC-IMPROVEMENT ; MAIZE PRODUCTION ; WATER-USE ; WHEAT ; YIELDS ; MODEL ; AGRICULTURE ; PLAIN
WOS记录号	WOS:000411546600006
出版者	SPRINGER
文献子类	Article
出版地	NEW YORK
EISSN	1432-1254
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [31370492, 41605088, 41471444, 41573069]
作者邮箱	zhw@mail.iap.ac.cn
引用统计	被引频次：24[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.ibcas.ac.cn/handle/2S10CLM1/22022
专题	植被与环境变化国家重点实验室
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LAPC, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Bot, LVEC, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Qing,Zhang, Wen,Li, Tingting,et al. Projective analysis of staple food crop productivity in adaptation to future climate change in China[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY,2017,61(8):1445-1460.
APA	Zhang, Qing,Zhang, Wen,Li, Tingting,Sun, Wenjuan,Yu, Yongqiang,&Wang, Guocheng.(2017).Projective analysis of staple food crop productivity in adaptation to future climate change in China.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY,61(8),1445-1460.
MLA	Zhang, Qing,et al."Projective analysis of staple food crop productivity in adaptation to future climate change in China".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 61.8(2017):1445-1460.

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