Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0177553

	Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates
	Zhao, Chuang ; Liu, Bing 1,2,3,4,5; Piao, Shilong 6,7; Wang, Xuhui ; Lobell, David B.; Huang, Yao9 ; Huang, Mengtian ; Yao, Yitong ; Bassu, Simona 10; Ciais, Philippe 11; Durand, Jean-Louis ; Elliott, Joshua 13; Ewert, Frank 15,16; Janssens, Ivan A.; Li, Tao 18; Lin, Erda 19; Liu, Qiang ; Martre, Pierre 20; Mueller, Christoph 21; Peng, Shushi ; Penuelas, Josep 22,23; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel 25; Wang, Tao 6,7; Wu, Donghai ; Liu, Zhuo ; Zhu, Yan 1,2,3,4; Zhu, Zaichun ; Asseng, Senthold 5
	2017
发表期刊	PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
ISSN	0027-8424
卷号	114 期号:35 页码:9326-9331
摘要	Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multi-method analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop-and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.
关键词	climate change impact global food security major food crops temperature increase yield
学科领域	Science & Technology - Other Topics
DOI	10.1371/journal.pone.0177553
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; WHEAT YIELD ; IMPACTS ; GROWTH ; RANGE ; FOOD
WOS记录号	WOS:000402061500031
出版者	NATL ACAD SCIENCES
文献子类	Article
出版地	WASHINGTON
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [41530528, 41561134016] ; 111 ProjectMinistry of Education, China - 111 Project [B14001, B16026] ; National Youth Top-Notch Talent Support Program in China ; Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food SecurityCGIAR ; CGIAR Research Program on Wheat and the Wheat InitiativeCGIAR ; National High-Tech Research and Development Program of ChinaNational High Technology Research and Development Program of China [2013AA102404] ; Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions ; MACMIT (climate mitigation in agricultural production systems through sustainable resource management) Project [01LN1317A] ; German Federal Ministry of Education and ResearchFederal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF) ; European Research Council Synergy GrantEuropean Research Council (ERC) [ERC-SyG-2013-610028 IMBALANCE-P] ; French Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR) Convergence Lab Changement climatique et usage des terres (CLAND)French National Research Agency (ANR) ; German Science Foundation Project [EW 119/5-1] ; Joint Programming Initiative for Agriculture, Climate Change, and Food Security Modelling European Agriculture ; Climate Change for Food Security Project through German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture Grant [2815ERA01J]
作者邮箱	slpiao@pku.edu.cn ; sasseng@ufl.edu
作品OA属性	Green Published, Green Submitted, gold
引用统计	被引频次：11[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.ibcas.ac.cn/handle/2S10CLM1/22255
专题	植被与环境变化国家重点实验室
作者单位	1.Peking Univ, Sino French Inst Earth Syst Sci, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China 2.Nanjing Agr Univ, Natl Engn & Technol Ctr Informat Agr, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 3.Nanjing Agr Univ, Key Lab Crop Syst Anal & Decis Making, Minist Agr, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 4.Nanjing Agr Univ, Jiangsu Key Lab Informat Agr, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 5.Nanjing Agr Univ, Jiangsu Collaborat Innovat Ctr Modern Crop Prod, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 6.Univ Florida, Agr & Biol Engn Dept, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA 7.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Alpine Ecol & Biodivers, Beijing 100085, Peoples R China 8.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Excellence Tibetan Earth Sci, Beijing 100085, Peoples R China 9.Lobell, David B.] Stanford Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Ctr Food Secur & Environm, Stanford, CA 94305 USA 10.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Bot, State Key Lab Vegetat & Environm Change, Beijing 100093, Peoples R China 11.Univ Sassari, Desertificat Res Ctr, I-07100 Sassari, Italy 12.Univ Versailles St Quentin, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, Commissariat Energie Atom & Energies Alternat, CNRS, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France 13.INRA, Unite Rech Pluridisciplinaire Prairies & Plantes, CS 80006, F-86600 Lusignan, France 14.Univ Chicago, Computat Inst, Chicago, IL 60637 USA 15.Elliott, Joshua; Ruane, Alex C.] Columbia Univ, Ctr Climate Syst Res, New York, NY 10025 USA 16.Univ Bonn, Inst Crop Sci & Resource Conservat, D-53115 Bonn, Germany 17.Leibniz Ctr Agr Landscape Res, D-15374 Muncheberg, Germany 18.Janssens, Ivan A.] Univ Antwerp, Dept Biol, B-2610 Antwerp, Belgium 19.Int Rice Res Inst, Los Banos 4031, Laguna, Philippines 20.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Agroenvironm & Sustainable Dev Inst, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China 21.Montpellier SupAgro, UMR Lab Ecophysiol Plantes Stress Environm, INRA, Montpellier, France 22.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Climate Impacts & Vulnerabil, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany 23.Ctr Recerca Ecol & Aplicac Forestals, Barcelona 08193, Spain 24.UAB, CSIC, Global Ecol Unit, CREAF, Barcelona 08193, Catalonia, Spain 25.Ruane, Alex C.] NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA 26.INRA, UMR Agrosyst & Dev Terr 1248, F-31326 Castanet Tolosan, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhao, Chuang,Liu, Bing,Piao, Shilong,et al. Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2017,114(35):9326-9331.
APA	Zhao, Chuang.,Liu, Bing.,Piao, Shilong.,Wang, Xuhui.,Lobell, David B..,...&Asseng, Senthold.(2017).Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,114(35),9326-9331.
MLA	Zhao, Chuang,et al."Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 114.35(2017):9326-9331.

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