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Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates
Zhao, Chuang; Liu, Bing1,2,3,4,5; Piao, Shilong6,7; Wang, Xuhui; Lobell, David B.; Huang, Yao9; Huang, Mengtian; Yao, Yitong; Bassu, Simona10; Ciais, Philippe11; Durand, Jean-Louis; Elliott, Joshua13; Ewert, Frank15,16; Janssens, Ivan A.; Li, Tao18; Lin, Erda19; Liu, Qiang; Martre, Pierre20; Mueller, Christoph21; Peng, Shushi; Penuelas, Josep22,23; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel25; Wang, Tao6,7; Wu, Donghai; Liu, Zhuo; Zhu, Yan1,2,3,4; Zhu, Zaichun; Asseng, Senthold5
AbstractWheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multi-method analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop-and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.
Keywordclimate change impact global food security major food crops temperature increase yield
Subject AreaScience & Technology - Other Topics
Indexed BySCI
WOS IDWOS:000402061500031
Publication PlaceWASHINGTON
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [41530528, 41561134016] ; 111 ProjectMinistry of Education, China - 111 Project [B14001, B16026] ; National Youth Top-Notch Talent Support Program in China ; Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food SecurityCGIAR ; CGIAR Research Program on Wheat and the Wheat InitiativeCGIAR ; National High-Tech Research and Development Program of ChinaNational High Technology Research and Development Program of China [2013AA102404] ; Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions ; MACMIT (climate mitigation in agricultural production systems through sustainable resource management) Project [01LN1317A] ; German Federal Ministry of Education and ResearchFederal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF) ; European Research Council Synergy GrantEuropean Research Council (ERC) [ERC-SyG-2013-610028 IMBALANCE-P] ; French Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR) Convergence Lab Changement climatique et usage des terres (CLAND)French National Research Agency (ANR) ; German Science Foundation Project [EW 119/5-1] ; Joint Programming Initiative for Agriculture, Climate Change, and Food Security Modelling European Agriculture ; Climate Change for Food Security Project through German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture Grant [2815ERA01J]
Corresponding Author Emailslpiao@pku.edu.cn ; sasseng@ufl.edu
OAGreen Published, Green Submitted, gold
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Cited Times:10[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Affiliation1.Peking Univ, Sino French Inst Earth Syst Sci, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China
2.Nanjing Agr Univ, Natl Engn & Technol Ctr Informat Agr, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
3.Nanjing Agr Univ, Key Lab Crop Syst Anal & Decis Making, Minist Agr, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
4.Nanjing Agr Univ, Jiangsu Key Lab Informat Agr, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
5.Nanjing Agr Univ, Jiangsu Collaborat Innovat Ctr Modern Crop Prod, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
6.Univ Florida, Agr & Biol Engn Dept, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA
7.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Alpine Ecol & Biodivers, Beijing 100085, Peoples R China
8.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Excellence Tibetan Earth Sci, Beijing 100085, Peoples R China
9.Lobell, David B.] Stanford Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Ctr Food Secur & Environm, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
10.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Bot, State Key Lab Vegetat & Environm Change, Beijing 100093, Peoples R China
11.Univ Sassari, Desertificat Res Ctr, I-07100 Sassari, Italy
12.Univ Versailles St Quentin, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, Commissariat Energie Atom & Energies Alternat, CNRS, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France
13.INRA, Unite Rech Pluridisciplinaire Prairies & Plantes, CS 80006, F-86600 Lusignan, France
14.Univ Chicago, Computat Inst, Chicago, IL 60637 USA
15.Elliott, Joshua; Ruane, Alex C.] Columbia Univ, Ctr Climate Syst Res, New York, NY 10025 USA
16.Univ Bonn, Inst Crop Sci & Resource Conservat, D-53115 Bonn, Germany
17.Leibniz Ctr Agr Landscape Res, D-15374 Muncheberg, Germany
18.Janssens, Ivan A.] Univ Antwerp, Dept Biol, B-2610 Antwerp, Belgium
19.Int Rice Res Inst, Los Banos 4031, Laguna, Philippines
20.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Agroenvironm & Sustainable Dev Inst, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
21.Montpellier SupAgro, UMR Lab Ecophysiol Plantes Stress Environm, INRA, Montpellier, France
22.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Climate Impacts & Vulnerabil, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany
23.Ctr Recerca Ecol & Aplicac Forestals, Barcelona 08193, Spain
24.UAB, CSIC, Global Ecol Unit, CREAF, Barcelona 08193, Catalonia, Spain
25.Ruane, Alex C.] NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA
26.INRA, UMR Agrosyst & Dev Terr 1248, F-31326 Castanet Tolosan, France
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhao, Chuang,Liu, Bing,Piao, Shilong,et al. Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2017,114(35):9326-9331.
APA Zhao, Chuang.,Liu, Bing.,Piao, Shilong.,Wang, Xuhui.,Lobell, David B..,...&Asseng, Senthold.(2017).Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,114(35),9326-9331.
MLA Zhao, Chuang,et al."Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 114.35(2017):9326-9331.
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