Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming

doi:10.1111/nph.14808

	Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming
	Zhao, Chuang ; Piao, Shilong 1,2; Wang, Xuhui ; Huang, Yao3 ; Ciais, Philippe 4; Elliott, Joshua 5; Huang, Mengtian ; Janssens, Ivan A.; Li, Tao 7; Lian, Xu ; Liu, Yongwen ; Mueller, Christoph 8; Peng, Shushi ; Wang, Tao 1,2; Zeng, Zhenzhong ; Penuelas, Josep 9,10
	2017
发表期刊	NATURE PLANTS
ISSN	2055-026X
卷号	3 期号:1
摘要	Rice is the staple food for more than 50% of the world's population1-3. Reliable prediction of changes in rice yield is thus central for maintaining global food security. This is an extraordinary challenge. Here, we compare the sensitivity of rice yield to temperature increase derived from field warming experiments and three modelling approaches: statistical models, local crop models and global gridded crop models. Field warming experiments produce a substantial rice yield loss under warming, with an average temperature sensitivity of -5.2 +/- 1.4% K-1. Local crop models give a similar sensitivity (-6.3 +/- 0.4% K-1), but statistical and global gridded crop models both suggest less negative impacts of warming on yields (-0.8 +/- 0.3% and -2.4 +/- 3.7% K-1, respectively). Using data from field warming experiments, we further propose a conditional probability approach to constrain the large range of global gridded crop model results for the future yield changes in response to warming by the end of the century (from -1.3% to -9.3% K-1). The constraint implies a more negative response to warming (-8.3 +/- 1.4% K-1) and reduces the spread of the model ensemble by 33%. This yield reduction exceeds that estimated by the International Food Policy Research Institute assessment (-4.2 to -6.4% K-1) (ref. 4). Our study suggests that without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation and genetic improvement, severe rice yield losses are plausible under intensive climate warming scenarios.
学科领域	Plant Sciences
DOI	10.1111/nph.14808
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS关键词	INFRARED HEATER ; CARBON-DIOXIDE ; FOOD SECURITY ; CROP YIELDS ; IMPACT ; METAANALYSIS ; ADAPTATION ; ECOSYSTEM ; MODELS ; MAIZE
WOS记录号	WOS:000427294000001
出版者	NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
文献子类	Article
出版地	LONDON
EISSN	2055-0278
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [41530528, 41561134016] ; 111 projectMinistry of Education, China - 111 Project [B14001] ; National Youth Top-notch Talent Support Program in China ; European Research Council Synergy grantEuropean Research Council (ERC) [ERC-2013-SYG-610028] ; MACMIT project [01LN1317A] ; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)Federal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF)
作者邮箱	slpiao@pku.edu.cn
作品OA属性	Bronze
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.ibcas.ac.cn/handle/2S10CLM1/22342
专题	植被与环境变化国家重点实验室
作者单位	1.Peking Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Sino French Inst Earth Syst Sci, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Alpine Ecol & Biodivers, Beijing 100085, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Excellence Tibetan Earth Sci, Beijing 100085, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Bot, State Key Lab Vegetat & Environm Change, Beijing 100093, Peoples R China 5.UVSQ, CNRS, CEA, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France 6.Univ Chicago, Computat Inst, Chicago, IL 60637 USA 7.Janssens, Ivan A.] Univ Antwerp, Dept Biol, Univ Pl 1, B-2610 Antwerp, Belgium 8.Int Rice Res Inst, Los Banos 4031, Laguna, Philippines 9.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany 10.CREAF, Barcelona 08193, Catalonia, Spain 11.UAB, CSIC, CEAB, CREAF,Global Ecol Unit, Barcelona 08193, Catalonia, Spain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhao, Chuang,Piao, Shilong,Wang, Xuhui,et al. Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming[J]. NATURE PLANTS,2017,3(1).
APA	Zhao, Chuang.,Piao, Shilong.,Wang, Xuhui.,Huang, Yao.,Ciais, Philippe.,...&Penuelas, Josep.(2017).Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming.NATURE PLANTS,3(1).
MLA	Zhao, Chuang,et al."Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming".NATURE PLANTS 3.1(2017).

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