IB-CAS  > 植被与环境变化国家重点实验室
Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming
Zhao, Chuang; Piao, Shilong1,2; Wang, Xuhui; Huang, Yao3; Ciais, Philippe4; Elliott, Joshua5; Huang, Mengtian; Janssens, Ivan A.; Li, Tao7; Lian, Xu; Liu, Yongwen; Mueller, Christoph8; Peng, Shushi; Wang, Tao1,2; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Penuelas, Josep9,10
Source PublicationNATURE PLANTS
AbstractRice is the staple food for more than 50% of the world's population1-3. Reliable prediction of changes in rice yield is thus central for maintaining global food security. This is an extraordinary challenge. Here, we compare the sensitivity of rice yield to temperature increase derived from field warming experiments and three modelling approaches: statistical models, local crop models and global gridded crop models. Field warming experiments produce a substantial rice yield loss under warming, with an average temperature sensitivity of -5.2 +/- 1.4% K-1. Local crop models give a similar sensitivity (-6.3 +/- 0.4% K-1), but statistical and global gridded crop models both suggest less negative impacts of warming on yields (-0.8 +/- 0.3% and -2.4 +/- 3.7% K-1, respectively). Using data from field warming experiments, we further propose a conditional probability approach to constrain the large range of global gridded crop model results for the future yield changes in response to warming by the end of the century (from -1.3% to -9.3% K-1). The constraint implies a more negative response to warming (-8.3 +/- 1.4% K-1) and reduces the spread of the model ensemble by 33%. This yield reduction exceeds that estimated by the International Food Policy Research Institute assessment (-4.2 to -6.4% K-1) (ref. 4). Our study suggests that without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation and genetic improvement, severe rice yield losses are plausible under intensive climate warming scenarios.
Subject AreaPlant Sciences
Indexed BySCI
WOS IDWOS:000427294000001
Publication PlaceLONDON
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [41530528, 41561134016] ; 111 projectMinistry of Education, China - 111 Project [B14001] ; National Youth Top-notch Talent Support Program in China ; European Research Council Synergy grantEuropean Research Council (ERC) [ERC-2013-SYG-610028] ; MACMIT project [01LN1317A] ; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)Federal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF)
Corresponding Author Emailslpiao@pku.edu.cn
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Document Type期刊论文
Affiliation1.Peking Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Sino French Inst Earth Syst Sci, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Alpine Ecol & Biodivers, Beijing 100085, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Excellence Tibetan Earth Sci, Beijing 100085, Peoples R China
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Bot, State Key Lab Vegetat & Environm Change, Beijing 100093, Peoples R China
5.UVSQ, CNRS, CEA, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France
6.Univ Chicago, Computat Inst, Chicago, IL 60637 USA
7.Janssens, Ivan A.] Univ Antwerp, Dept Biol, Univ Pl 1, B-2610 Antwerp, Belgium
8.Int Rice Res Inst, Los Banos 4031, Laguna, Philippines
9.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany
10.CREAF, Barcelona 08193, Catalonia, Spain
11.UAB, CSIC, CEAB, CREAF,Global Ecol Unit, Barcelona 08193, Catalonia, Spain
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhao, Chuang,Piao, Shilong,Wang, Xuhui,et al. Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming[J]. NATURE PLANTS,2017,3(1).
APA Zhao, Chuang.,Piao, Shilong.,Wang, Xuhui.,Huang, Yao.,Ciais, Philippe.,...&Penuelas, Josep.(2017).Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming.NATURE PLANTS,3(1).
MLA Zhao, Chuang,et al."Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming".NATURE PLANTS 3.1(2017).
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