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| East Asian summer monsoon precipitation variations in China over the last 9500 years: A comparison of pollen-based reconstructions and model simulations | |
| Li, Jianyong; Ilvonen, Liisa1; Xu, Qinghai2,3,4; Ni, Jian5; Jin, Liya6; Holmstrom, Lasse1; Zheng, Zhuo7; Lu, Houyuan8; Luo, Yunli9; Li, Yuecong3,4; Li, Chunhai10; Zhang, Xiaojian6; Seppa, Heikki | |
| 2016 | |
| 发表期刊 | HOLOCENE
 |
| ISSN | 0959-6836 |
| 卷号 | 26期号:4页码:592-602 |
| 摘要 | To better understand the long-term changes of the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation (P-jja), quantitative reconstructions and model simulations are needed. Here, we develop continental-scale pollen-based transfer functions for P-jja with weighted averaging-partial least squares (WA-PLS) regression and a Bayesian multinomial regression method. We apply these transfer functions to a set of fossil pollen data from monsoonal China for quantitatively reconstructing the P-jja changes over the last 9500 years. We compare the reconstructions with P-jja simulations from a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice general circulation model (the Kiel Climate Model, KCM). The results of cross-validation tests for the transfer functions show that both the WAPLS model (r2 = 0.83, root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) = 112.11 mm) and the Bayesian model (r2 = 0.86, RMSEP = 107.67 mm) exhibit good predictive performance. We stack all P-jja reconstructions from northern China to a summary curve. The stacked record reveals that P-jja increased since 9500 cal. yr BP, attained its highest level during the Holocene summer monsoon maximum (HSMM) at similar to 7000-4000 cal. yr BP and declined to present. The KCM output and the reconstructions differ in the early-Holocene (similar to 9500-7000 cal. yr BP) where the model suggests higher P-jja than the reconstructions. Moreover, during the HSMM, the amplitude of the P-jja changes (similar to 20-60 mm above present) in simulations is lower than the reconstructed changes (similar to 70-110 mm above present). The rising (declining) P-jja patterns in reconstructions before (after) the HSMM are more pronounced and fluctuating than in simulations. Other palaeohydrological data such as lake-level reconstructions indicate substantial monsoon precipitation changes throughout the Holocene. Our results therefore show that the KCM underestimates the overall amplitude of the Holocene monsoon precipitation changes. |
| 关键词 | climate model climate reconstructions East Asian summer monsoon monsoonal China pollen data precipitation |
| 学科领域 | Geography, Physical ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
| DOI | 10.1177/0959683615612564 |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS关键词 | NORTH-CENTRAL CHINA ; HIGH-RESOLUTION ; HOLOCENE VEGETATION ; MIDHOLOCENE CLIMATE ; MOISTURE EVOLUTION ; DAIHAI LAKE ; ENVIRONMENTAL-CHANGES ; TEMPORAL PATTERNS ; SURFACE-POLLEN ; INNER-MONGOLIA |
| WOS研究方向 | Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED) |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000372866100009 |
| 出版者 | SAGE PUBLICATIONS LTD |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 出版地 | LONDON |
| EISSN | 1477-0911 |
| 资助机构 | Chinese Academy of SciencesChinese Academy of Sciences [XDA05120202] ; Key National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [40730103] ; National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [40730103, 41371215] ; Key Technology R&D Program of Hebei Province [13277611D] ; China Scholarship Council (CSC) at the University of HelsinkiChina Scholarship Council [201208130087] ; project EBOR from the Academy of Finland ; Nordic top-level research initiative CRAICC |
| 作者邮箱 | xuqinghai@mail.hebtu.edu.cn |
| 引用统计 | |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://ir.ibcas.ac.cn/handle/2S10CLM1/24978 |
| 专题 | 植被与环境变化国家重点实验室 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Helsinki, Dept Geosci & Geog, FIN-00014 Helsinki, Finland 2.Univ Oulu, Dept Math Sci, SF-90100 Oulu, Finland 3.Hebei Normal Univ, Inst Nihewan Archaeol, East Rd Southern 2nd Ring, Shijiazhuang 050024, Hebei Province, Peoples R China 4.Hebei Normal Univ, Coll Resources & Environm Sci, Shijiazhuang 050024, Hebei Province, Peoples R China 5.Hebei Normal Univ, Hebei Key Lab Environm Change & Ecol Construct, Shijiazhuang 050024, Hebei Province, Peoples R China 6.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Environm Geochem, Inst Geochem, Beijing 100864, Peoples R China 7.Lanzhou Univ, Key Lab Western Chinas Environm Syst, Res Sch Arid Environm & Climate Change, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China 8.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Dept Earth Sci, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China 9.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Cenozo Geol & Environm, Inst Geol & Geophys, Beijing 100864, Peoples R China 10.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Bot, Beijing 100864, Peoples R China 11.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Lake Sci & Environm, Nanjing Inst Geog & Limnol, Beijing 100864, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li, Jianyong,Ilvonen, Liisa,Xu, Qinghai,et al. East Asian summer monsoon precipitation variations in China over the last 9500 years: A comparison of pollen-based reconstructions and model simulations[J]. HOLOCENE,2016,26(4):592-602. |
| APA | Li, Jianyong.,Ilvonen, Liisa.,Xu, Qinghai.,Ni, Jian.,Jin, Liya.,...&Seppa, Heikki.(2016).East Asian summer monsoon precipitation variations in China over the last 9500 years: A comparison of pollen-based reconstructions and model simulations.HOLOCENE,26(4),592-602. |
| MLA | Li, Jianyong,et al."East Asian summer monsoon precipitation variations in China over the last 9500 years: A comparison of pollen-based reconstructions and model simulations".HOLOCENE 26.4(2016):592-602. |
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