Impacts of climate change on suitability zonation for potato cultivation in Jilin Province, Northeast China

doi:10.1038/s41598-021-91273-5

	Impacts of climate change on suitability zonation for potato cultivation in Jilin Province, Northeast China
	Zhu, Yaqiu ; Yu, Qiang ; Luo, Qiyou ; Zhang, Hua ; Zhao, Jinling 1; Ju, Zhanghong ; Du, Yating ; Yang, Yadong
	2021
发表期刊	SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
ISSN	2045-2322
卷号	11 期号:1
摘要	Global climate change is causing notable shifts in the environmental suitability of the main regions involved in potato cultivation and has, thus, changed the production potential of potatoes. These shifts can be mapped at fine scales to better understand climate change within areas of potato cultivation and to find infrastructural- and breeding-based solutions. As a case study, we have identified and mapped the structural and spatial shifts that occurred in areas suitable for potato cultivation in Jilin Province, China. We identified a discontinuity in climate change trends between 1961 and 2018 based on data for Jilin Province, and analyzed the averages and linear trends for six important climatic parameters. We used the averages of these climatic parameters to establish climate models for the province and determined cultivation using a multi-criteria, decision-based model that integrates Analytical Hierarchy Process Weighted Principal Component Analysis (AHP-PCA) and Geographic Information System (GIS). We mapped the environmentally suitable areas for potato cultivation at a 3-km resolution based on the geo-climate model for each time period and analyzed differences between them. We found that Most suitable areas for potato cultivation were mainly distributed in the central area of Jilin Province, Suitable areas were located in the northwestern plains, and Sub-suitable areas were located in the eastern mountainous areas. In contrast, Not suitable areas occur mainly in the high-altitude areas in the east. The areas of Most suitable and Suitable areas for potato cultivation in Jilin Province were increasing, with increasing rates of 0.37 x 1,000 km(2) decade(-1) (R-2 = 0.58, P < 0.01) and 0.20 x 1,000 km(2) decade(-1) (R-2 = 0.28, P < 0.01), respectively, while the extent of Sub-suitable areas is decreasing, with a decreasing rate of 0.58 x 1,000 km(2) decade(-1) (R-2 = 0.53, P < 0.05). The area of Not suitable areas had undergone little change. Most suitable and Suitable areas for potato cultivation showed a trend towards northward expansion. Overall, our results suggest that global climate change has had a positive impact on potato cultivation in Jilin Province over the past 58 years.
学科领域	Multidisciplinary Sciences
DOI	10.1038/s41598-021-91273-5
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS关键词	POTENTIAL IMPACTS ; CROPPING SYSTEMS ; TEMPERATURE ; TRENDS ; AGRICULTURE ; PHENOLOGY ; REGIONS ; GROWTH ; SHIFTS ; TIME
WOS研究方向	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:000694653700047
出版者	NATURE PORTFOLIO
文献子类	Article
出版地	BERLIN
资助机构	Soft Science Project of Rural Revitalization Expert Advisory Committee, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas, Central Agricultural Affairs Office [20190206, 2019KF116] ; Special Funds for Basic Scientific Research, Central Public-interest Scientific Institution [Y2018YJ26, Y2019ZK10, G202002-48.747.1610132020018]
作者邮箱	yuqiang@caas.cn ; yangyadong@caas.cn
作品OA属性	gold, Green Published
引用统计	被引频次：4[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.ibcas.ac.cn/handle/2S10CLM1/26526
专题	植被与环境变化国家重点实验室
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agr Resources & Reg Planning, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Bot, State Key Lab Vegetat & Environm Change, Beijing 100093, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhu, Yaqiu,Yu, Qiang,Luo, Qiyou,et al. Impacts of climate change on suitability zonation for potato cultivation in Jilin Province, Northeast China[J]. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,2021,11(1).
APA	Zhu, Yaqiu.,Yu, Qiang.,Luo, Qiyou.,Zhang, Hua.,Zhao, Jinling.,...&Yang, Yadong.(2021).Impacts of climate change on suitability zonation for potato cultivation in Jilin Province, Northeast China.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,11(1).
MLA	Zhu, Yaqiu,et al."Impacts of climate change on suitability zonation for potato cultivation in Jilin Province, Northeast China".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 11.1(2021).

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