Uncertainties in estimating regional methane emissions from rice paddies due to data scarcity in the modeling approach

doi:10.5194/gmd-7-1211-2014

	Uncertainties in estimating regional methane emissions from rice paddies due to data scarcity in the modeling approach
	Zhang, W.; Zhang, Q.; Huang, Y.; Li, T. T.; Bian, J. Y.; Han, P. F.
	2014
发表期刊	GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
ISSN	1991-959X
卷号	7 期号:3 页码:1211-1224
摘要	Rice paddies are a major anthropogenic source of the atmospheric methane. However, because of the high spatial heterogeneity, making accurate estimations of the methane emission from rice paddies is still a big challenge, even with complicated models. Data scarcity is one of the substantial causes of the uncertainties in estimating the methane emissions on regional scales. In the present study, we discussed how data scarcity affected the uncertainties in model estimations of rice paddy methane emissions, from county/provincial scale up to national scale. The uncertainties in methane emissions from the rice paddies of China was calculated with a local-scale model and the Monte Carlo simulation. The data scarcities in five of the most sensitive model variables, field irrigation, organic matter application, soil properties, rice variety and production were included in the analysis. The result showed that in each individual county, the within-cell standard deviation of methane flux, as calculated via Monte Carlo methods, was 13.5-89.3% of the statistical mean. After spatial aggregation, the national total methane emissions were estimated at 6.44-7.32 Tg, depending on the base scale of the modeling and the reliability of the input data. And with the given data availability, the overall aggregated standard deviation was 16.3% of the total emissions, ranging from 18.3-28.0% for early, late and middle rice ecosystems. The 95% confidence interval of the estimation was 4.5-8.7 Tg by assuming a gamma distribution. Improving the data availability of the model input variables is expected to reduce the uncertainties significantly, especially of those factors with high model sensitivities.
学科领域	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
DOI	10.5194/gmd-7-1211-2014
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS关键词	CH4 EMISSION ; CHINA ; SOIL ; FIELDS ; CULTIVATION ; CROPLANDS ; SENSITIVITY ; MANAGEMENT ; FLUXES
WOS研究方向	Geology
WOS记录号	WOS:000341600100028
出版者	COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
文献子类	Article
出版地	GOTTINGEN
EISSN	1991-9603
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China [41175132, 41075107, 41321064] ; National Key Basic Research Development Foundation of China [2010CB950603]
作者邮箱	litingting@mail.iap.ac.cn
作品OA属性	gold, Green Submitted
引用统计	被引频次：9[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.ibcas.ac.cn/handle/2S10CLM1/27061
专题	植被与环境变化国家重点实验室
作者单位	1.[Zhang, W. 2.Zhang, Q. 3.Li, T. T. 4.Bian, J. Y. 5.Han, P. F.] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LAPC, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 6.[Zhang, Q. 7.Han, P. F.] Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 8.[Huang, Y.] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Bot, LVEC, Beijing 100093, Peoples R China 9.[Bian, J. Y.] Hubei Univ, Fac Resources & Environm Sci, Wuhan 430062, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, W.,Zhang, Q.,Huang, Y.,et al. Uncertainties in estimating regional methane emissions from rice paddies due to data scarcity in the modeling approach[J]. GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT,2014,7(3):1211-1224.
APA	Zhang, W.,Zhang, Q.,Huang, Y.,Li, T. T.,Bian, J. Y.,&Han, P. F..(2014).Uncertainties in estimating regional methane emissions from rice paddies due to data scarcity in the modeling approach.GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT,7(3),1211-1224.
MLA	Zhang, W.,et al."Uncertainties in estimating regional methane emissions from rice paddies due to data scarcity in the modeling approach".GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT 7.3(2014):1211-1224.

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