Major declines of woody plant species ranges under climate change in Yunnan, China

doi:10.1111/ddi.12165

	Major declines of woody plant species ranges under climate change in Yunnan, China
	Zhang, Ming-Gang ; Zhou, Zhe-Kun ; Chen, Wen-Yun ; Cannon, Charles H.; Raes, Niels 6; Slik, J. W. Ferry
	2014
发表期刊	DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS
ISSN	1366-9516
卷号	20 期号:4 页码:405-415
摘要	AimA wide range of forests distributed across steep environmental gradients are found in Yunnan, southwest China. Climate change could profoundly change these forests by affecting species ranges. We produce predictions about species suitable habitat shifts and use these to (1) evaluate species range size change, loss and turn-over under no- and full-dispersal and nine climate change scenarios and (2) identify environmental variables responsible for current species richness and future local species losses. LocationYunnan Province, Southwest China. MethodsUsing MaxEnt, we modelled current distributions of 2319 woody plant species, corrected for collecting bias and found that 1996 had significant spatial association with environmental factors. Using three General Circulation Models (GCMs: CGCM, CSIRO and HADCM3) for the years 2070-2099 (2080s), based on three emission scenarios for each GCM (A1b, A2a and B2a), we predicted the future geographic position of suitable habitat for each species. ResultsAlthough most species were predicted to persist within Yunnan, with a maximum extinction rate of c.6% under the most extreme climate change scenario, up to 1400 species (of the 1996 tested) are expected to lose more than 30% of their current range under the most extreme climate change scenario. Assuming no- or unlimited dispersal minimally affected these outcomes. Species losses were associated with increasing temperature variability and declining precipitation during the dry season. Main conclusionsTo conserve Yunnan's woody flora, management efforts should focus on providing elevational migration routes at local scales, with priority for those areas located within previously identified conservation hotspots. As almost all species show range contractions, storage of genetic diversity in seed banks and botanical gardens would be sensible. A change in Yunnan's conservation policy will be needed to counter the predicted negative impacts of climate change on its flora.
关键词	Climate change conservation strategies emigrants extinction risk immigrants species distribution model
学科领域	Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology
DOI	10.1111/ddi.12165
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS关键词	EVOLUTIONARY RESPONSES ; SEED DISPERSAL ; BIODIVERSITY ; CONSERVATION ; RICHNESS ; DIVERSITY ; MIGRATION ; MODEL ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; ADAPTATION
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS记录号	WOS:000332445900004
出版者	WILEY
文献子类	Article
出版地	HOBOKEN
EISSN	1472-4642
资助机构	NWO - ALW [819.01.014]
作者邮箱	ferryslik@hotmail.com
引用统计	被引频次：64[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.ibcas.ac.cn/handle/2S10CLM1/27202
专题	植被与环境变化国家重点实验室
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Xishuangbanna Trop Bot Garden, Ctr Integrated Conservat, Plant Geog Lab, Menglun 666303, Yunnan, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Bot, State Key Lab Vegetat & Environm Change, Beijing 100093, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Grad Univ, Beijing 100093, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Biogeog & Biodivers, Kunming Inst Bot, Kunming 650204, Yunnan, Peoples R China 5.Cannon, Charles H.] Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Trop Forest Ecol, Xishuangbanna Trop Bot Garden, Menglun 666303, Yunnan, Peoples R China 6.Cannon, Charles H.] Texas Tech Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Lubbock, TX 79409 USA 7.Nat Biodivers Ctr, Sect Bot, NL-2333 CR Leiden, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Ming-Gang,Zhou, Zhe-Kun,Chen, Wen-Yun,et al. Major declines of woody plant species ranges under climate change in Yunnan, China[J]. DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS,2014,20(4):405-415.
APA	Zhang, Ming-Gang,Zhou, Zhe-Kun,Chen, Wen-Yun,Cannon, Charles H.,Raes, Niels,&Slik, J. W. Ferry.(2014).Major declines of woody plant species ranges under climate change in Yunnan, China.DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS,20(4),405-415.
MLA	Zhang, Ming-Gang,et al."Major declines of woody plant species ranges under climate change in Yunnan, China".DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS 20.4(2014):405-415.

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