Climate change threats to protected plants of China: an evaluation based on species distribution modeling

doi:10.1007/s11434-014-0642-6

	Climate change threats to protected plants of China: an evaluation based on species distribution modeling
	Zhang, Yinbo 1; Wang, Yuzhuo 1; Zhang, Minggang 1,2; Ma, Keping2
	2014
发表期刊	CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN
ISSN	1001-6538
卷号	59 期号:34 页码:4652-4659
摘要	Climate change poses major new challenges to biodiversity conservation. Distribution ranges of species have been proven to be affected by climate anomalies. Detecting the extent of protected species response to climate change can help formulate flexible conservation strategies to overcome the changing climate. Using species distribution modeling and high resolution climate data, we simulated current distribution patterns of 233 protected plants in China. Those patterns were then projected into future suitable habitats for each species under nine climate change scenarios, with no migration or full migration hypotheses. Under the most extreme climate change scenario (CGCM-B2a), we evaluated species extinction risks. Sixteen percent of protected plants are expected to lose more than 30 % of their current ranges. By calculating areal shifts, hotspots for emigrants, immigrants, and persistent species were identified under climate change. Flexible conservation strategies were addressed for those regions. Those strategies strongly depend on the migration types of species and sensitivity of the hotspots to changing climate. In hotspots for emigrants, the main conservation strategy is ex situ protection; protected species from these regions should be stored in seed banks or botanical gardens. For hotspots of immigrants, enough space should be maintained for new species, and some measures are necessary to assist dispersal. For hotspots of persistent species, more natural reserves are needed. We highlight related fields that can help conserve protected species in the future, such as conserving the soil seed bank and understanding of the effects of migration ability and interactions between protected species.
关键词	Climate change Maxent Species distribution modeling Protected plants Immigrants Emigrants
学科领域	Multidisciplinary Sciences
DOI	10.1007/s11434-014-0642-6
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS关键词	SELECTING THRESHOLDS ; SAMPLE-SIZE ; CONSERVATION ; PREDICTION ; FACE ; BIODIVERSITY ; PERFORMANCE ; MANAGEMENT ; PATTERNS ; IMPACTS
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS记录号	WOS:000344614800003
出版者	SCIENCE PRESS
文献子类	Article
出版地	BEIJING
EISSN	1861-9541
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China [31100392] ; National Science and Technology Support Program [2012BAC01B05]
作者邮箱	zhangmg@sxu.edu.cn
引用统计	被引频次：20[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.ibcas.ac.cn/handle/2S10CLM1/27225
专题	植被与环境变化国家重点实验室
作者单位	1.Shanxi Univ, Coll Environm & Resource Sci, Taiyuan 030006, Peoples R China 2.Shanxi Univ, Inst Loess Plateau, Taiyuan 030006, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Bot, State Key Lab Vegetat & Environm Change, Beijing 100093, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Yinbo,Wang, Yuzhuo,Zhang, Minggang,et al. Climate change threats to protected plants of China: an evaluation based on species distribution modeling[J]. CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN,2014,59(34):4652-4659.
APA	Zhang, Yinbo,Wang, Yuzhuo,Zhang, Minggang,&Ma, Keping.(2014).Climate change threats to protected plants of China: an evaluation based on species distribution modeling.CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN,59(34),4652-4659.
MLA	Zhang, Yinbo,et al."Climate change threats to protected plants of China: an evaluation based on species distribution modeling".CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN 59.34(2014):4652-4659.

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