A Bayesian assessment of the current irrigation water supplies capacity under projected droughts for the 2030s in China

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.06.002

	A Bayesian assessment of the current irrigation water supplies capacity under projected droughts for the 2030s in China
	Zhang, Tianyi ; Simelton, Elisabeth 1,4; Huang, Yao2 ; Shi, Ying 3
	2013
发表期刊	AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY
ISSN	0168-1923
卷号	178 页码:56-65
摘要	Crop models often simulate drought impacts with full and no irrigation scenarios, while planners are more interested in whether the current available irrigation water can cope with the future more serious droughts. This paper addresses a key constraint common to modeling studies: the limited representation of actual irrigation water supply. We present a data-driven approach to identify a benchmark for agronomic drought risk levels as defined by water availability thresholds at the baseline climate (1980-2008) using reported crop yields, climate and irrigation statistics. Then, holding the current irrigation supplies, we adopted Bayesian formula to estimate magnitude of the future water availability and the associated probability of crops yields being decreased to rainfall-deficiency under climate conditions in 2030s (2020-2040) based on the RegCM3 climate model output driven by IPCC SRES A1B scenario. Results reveal that future drought stress would overwhelm the irrigation capacity of current supplies in northern and western China, while drought remains at baseline climate levels in the central, eastern and southern regions. The largest increases in the probability of projected drought risk were in northeast and southwest, ranging from 14% to 28% above baseline climate. Regional drought impacts for grain self sufficiency are discussed. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
关键词	Drought Water availability Irrigation Bayesian formula Climate change
学科领域	Agronomy ; Forestry ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
DOI	10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.06.002
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; USE EFFICIENCY ; IMPACTS ; RESOLUTION ; MONSOON ; RICE ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; URBANIZATION ; AGRICULTURE ; VARIABILITY
WOS研究方向	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:000322349800007
出版者	ELSEVIER
文献子类	Article
出版地	AMSTERDAM
EISSN	1873-2240
资助机构	External Cooperation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Chinese Academy of Sciences) ; National Natural Science Foundation of China(National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC))
作者邮箱	Huang, Yao/GQH-3308-2022 ; Zhang, Tianyi/AAJ-6909-2020 ; Huang, Yao/O-6832-2014 ; huang, yao/GWR-5388-2022 ; LAPC, IAP/AAI-6991-2020
引用统计	被引频次：18[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.ibcas.ac.cn/handle/2S10CLM1/27966
专题	植被与环境变化国家重点实验室
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Atmospher Boundary Layer Phys & Atm, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 2.Univ Leeds, Ctr Climate Change Econ & Policy, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Bot, State Key Lab Vegetat & Environm Change, Beijing 100093, Peoples R China 4.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China 5.World Agroforestry Ctr, Hanoi, Vietnam
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Tianyi,Simelton, Elisabeth,Huang, Yao,et al. A Bayesian assessment of the current irrigation water supplies capacity under projected droughts for the 2030s in China[J]. AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY,2013,178:56-65.
APA	Zhang, Tianyi,Simelton, Elisabeth,Huang, Yao,&Shi, Ying.(2013).A Bayesian assessment of the current irrigation water supplies capacity under projected droughts for the 2030s in China.AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY,178,56-65.
MLA	Zhang, Tianyi,et al."A Bayesian assessment of the current irrigation water supplies capacity under projected droughts for the 2030s in China".AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY 178(2013):56-65.

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