Changes in wheat traits under future climate change and their contributions to yield changes in conventional vs. conservational tillage systems

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.152947

	Changes in wheat traits under future climate change and their contributions to yield changes in conventional vs. conservational tillage systems
	Li, Yibo 3; Hou, Ruixing 1,3; Liu, Xiaodi 2,3; Chen, Yi 3; Tao, Fulu 3,4
	2022
发表期刊	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN	0048-9697
卷号	815
摘要	Exploring the changes in wheat traits under future climate change and their contributions to yield changes is essential to improve the understanding of climate impact mechanisms and develop climate-resilient cultivars, which however has been seldom conducted. In this study, using a process-based crop model (APSIM-Wheat), meta-regression analyses, and machine learning approaches, we assessed the impacts of different warming levels on soil environments and wheat traits; investigated the impacts of future climate change on wheat traits, growth and development; and identified the favorable wheat traits for breeding under future climate change conditions. Meta-analyses showed that climate warming could significantly advance anthesis date by 3.50% and shorten the entire growth duration by 1.18%, although the duration from anthesis to maturity could be elongated by 7.72%. It could also increase grain yield slightly by 2.72% in the North China Plain, mainly due to the increase in biomass by 6.66%, grain weight by 3.86% and the elongating grain-filling period. However, high temperatures could significantly reduce aboveground biomass. 'the APSIM-Wheat model was validated based on three years' high-quality environment-controlled experimental data in the long-term warming and conservation tillage fields at Yucheng comprehensive experiment station in the North China Plain. The results showed that the mean yield would decrease under RCP4.5 for both tillage managements (conservational tillage: 0.55%, no-tillage: 6.88%), but increase conservational tillage yield (7.7%) under RCP8.5, relative to 1980-2010, owing to the interactive impacts of climate, CO2 and tillage on wheat traits. Soil moisture would play a more important role in biomass, yield, height, LAI, and grain number for conventional tillage than for no-tillage system, and in the future than in the historical period. Our findings gained insights into the impacts of climate change on wheat traits and yield under different tillage managements, which are essential to understand climate change impact mechanisms and develop climate-resilient cultivars.
关键词	Climate change impact Adaptation Climate resilient cultivars Cultivar traits No-tillage Warming
学科领域	Environmental Sciences
DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.152947
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS关键词	WINTER-WHEAT ; GENETIC-IMPROVEMENT ; RICE PRODUCTION ; CROP PRODUCTION ; USE EFFICIENCY ; GRAIN-YIELD ; WATER-USE ; CHINA ; MAIZE ; SOIL
WOS研究方向	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:000767231800009
出版者	ELSEVIER
文献子类	Article
出版地	AMSTERDAM
EISSN	1879-1026
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China [31761143006, 41571493, 31670485]
作者邮箱	taofl@igsnrr.ac.cn
引用统计	被引频次：6[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.ibcas.ac.cn/handle/2S10CLM1/28916
专题	植被与环境变化国家重点实验室
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Ecosyst Network Observat & Modeling, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Bot, State Key Lab Vegetat & Environm Change, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Finland 5.Nat Resources Inst Finland Luke, Helsinki, Finland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Yibo,Hou, Ruixing,Liu, Xiaodi,et al. Changes in wheat traits under future climate change and their contributions to yield changes in conventional vs. conservational tillage systems[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2022,815.
APA	Li, Yibo,Hou, Ruixing,Liu, Xiaodi,Chen, Yi,&Tao, Fulu.(2022).Changes in wheat traits under future climate change and their contributions to yield changes in conventional vs. conservational tillage systems.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,815.
MLA	Li, Yibo,et al."Changes in wheat traits under future climate change and their contributions to yield changes in conventional vs. conservational tillage systems".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 815(2022).

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